Resumen
Dado el panorama de las elecciones presidenciales de 2020 en Estados Unidos, en donde Donald Trump busca la reelección por el Partido Republicano, y Joe Biden es el candidato por el Partido Demócrata, surgen las interrogantes sobre cómo este resultado puede impactar a Rusia en el escenario internacional. El objetivo de este análisis es estudiar que, aunque haya una victoria republicana o demócrata, para Rusia la relación bilateral con Estados Unidos -en términos geopolíticos y de seguridad- seguirá siendo un reto. Si Trump es reelecto, la política exterior de Estados Unidos seguirá la línea de medidas defensivas -económicas y políticas-, así como la retirada de los espacios geopolíticos y de liderazgo global para garantizar su eje “America First”. Si Biden es electo, Rusia no bajará la guardia, pues los demócratas buscan recuperar esos espacios de liderazgo perdidos o debilitados. Para estudiar este tema, este texto primero analiza cómo se sitúa Rusia en el siglo XXI, lo cual está relacionado con su pensamiento geopolítico y estrategia contemporáneos. En segundo lugar, desde una perspectiva neorrealista, el documento examina lo que sucedió en las elecciones presidenciales de Estados Unidos de 2016 y por qué se responsabiliza a Rusia. También es necesario abordar el concepto clave de poder y cómo Joseph Nye lo estudia desde una perspectiva global, su relación con las tecnologías de la información, y cómo se le ha relacionado con la llamada Doctrina Gerasimov. En tercer lugar, el documento continúa con los escenarios geopolíticos donde Estados Unidos y Rusia tienen intereses, acuerdos y desacuerdos, ya que estos ayudarán a explicar el objetivo de este trabajo.
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